Thursday 29 March 2012

Mock Excitement - Pet Hates No 1

Obviously, I'm a fan of the NFL, but that doesn't mean I'm blind when it comes to the League.  There are certain aspects of the sport that annoy me ...so every couple of weeks, I'll be writing an article about one of those topics...first up is something that you're probably hearing a lot of at present...

Most team sports have an off season - a period of time when there's no live action to watch, so consequently fans and journalists have to look for stories to fill the gaps.

Luckily, since the SuperBowl in early February, the NFL has had an incredible amount of talking points and stories to keep journalists busy and fans entertained.  In short - one of the best QB's of all time has changed teams, the most talked about QB in the league has changed teams and one team has traded up to take the 2nd pick in the upcoming Draft.  Oh, and there's the small matter of the New Orleans Saints being found guilty of placing bounties on opposing Quarterbacks. A verdict that has seen (among other penalties) their Head Coach banned for a year.

All of these events have attracted plenty of column inches, in fact "column miles" may be a more apt description, so I'm not going to add my thoughts on these matters.  Instead I'm going to talk about a topic that occupies almost as much space on websites, blogs and forums.  It also happens to be one of my pet hates in the NFL...I'm talking about Mock Drafts.

For the non NFL fans reading this, a Mock Draft is where a writer attempts to predict the selections (usually first round only, but I have found 8 round efforts!) that each team will make in the upcoming NFL Draft.

The Draft itself is a wonderful concept and one I'll be covering in greater detail next month - essentially it promotes fair play by giving the weaker teams earlier selections of the best players coming out of the College football system.  Therefore, the Colts were ranked 32nd last season so they get picks 1,33 etc.  Whereas the Superbowl winning Giants have to wait until pick number 32 before they can acquire a new player.  It all helps to ensure that no teams can dominate the league year in year out, and that can only be a good thing.

However, what I find extremely tedious is sheer volume of people wanting to have a go at predicting who each team will pick. It might be somebody with an "amusing" pseudonym on a fans forum or it might be a top NFL expert on TV; whoever it is, I'm not interested!

What's wrong with somebody having a go at guessing where players will end up?
Well, I'm not having a go at the websites, fans and journalists that produce these Mocks,  I visit and/or write for some of them and there are many great NFL websites out there.  I'm just saying that they're not something I enjoy reading.

My main gripe is that they're almost always wrong.  OK, we can all predict that the Colts will take Andrew Luck with the 1st pick - he's the best player to come out of the College system for years and the Colts need a new QB.  Likewise we all know the Redskins will take Robert Griffin III with the second pick, for similar reasons.  You can even take fairly educated guesses at picks 3-6, as there is a small core of elite players that fit the requirements of the teams with these picks.

It's after that the real guesswork begins, the 7th pick belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars and a quick look round a few websites reveals that of the 12 Mocks I've viewed, there are 11 different suggestions for who the Jags will pick! Essentially, this is pure guesswork.

What's more, by making the 7th pick a lottery, you're making the rest of the selections the same, as it's impossible to know who will be left.  Yes, some teams will "reach" for players that fulfil big needs, for example the Dolphins may well pick Ryan Tannehill at no8.  He's not the 8th best player in the Draft, but Miami have an urgent need for a QB.

NFL.com has 4 Mock Drafts compiled by experts, and all of them have 4 different players in every position of all bar 5 of the remaining 1st round picks.  Yes, they will have theories for each selection, but each theory will be different.  Besides, each expert will have a different set of available players.  It really is random stuff, and some the theories for selections are equally as random  - eg the Bears will take a Wide Receiver because they have a need there and have identified Michael Floyd as sometime to fill that gap.  That's lovely, but they also have a number of other needs, so another expert will say that they need to take a Defensive Tackle and have identified Nick Perry as that man. A third expert will agree with the 2nd expert but he already has another team taking Perry, so he predicts the Bears will take a different DT.  And so it goes on...

Some teams can also come up with something completely left-field with their picks.  In 2000, the Oakland Raiders took a kicker in the 1st round.  I'm pretty sure everybody ripped up their Mock Draft sheets at that point. It was only the 3rd time in NFL history that a kicker had been taken in round one.

Another aspect of Mock Drafts that annoys me, is the fact people do them when they are many different factors that could happen between now and the actual Draft - teams may make player trades with other teams that a) give them Draft picks and b) fulfils a need they may have addressed in the Draft.  Either of these occurrences would render existing Mocks irrelevant.

Finally, I get annoyed by the emphasis that experts put on the Scouting Combine and Pro Days.  Yes, it's a chance for players to show off their attributes, prove they can run 40yds in a ridiculously fast time and bench press the weight of an entire family.  But it is only exercise, it's not them actually playing football.  Yet, some people use the Combine results to move players up and down Mock Drafts as if they had just broken some College all time records.  Besides, some players can look terrible at the Combine and still do OK in the NFL (see left)

I realise sport is about opinions and I love predicting matches (usually incorrectly) and betting on sport.  I just find that Mock Drafts take it too far.  I love the Draft, I think it's one of the great things about the NFL, but I prefer to just let it play out and see what happens.  I've seen about 10 different players being predicted as the Eagles 1st pick, so I'm not going to get too excited about the pick until it actually happens on the 26th April.  That's when we can really start looking forward to the season and look at who will be in the starting line ups for our teams.

There we go, I don't like Mock Drafts, it's largely irrational, so apologies to anyone reading this who has done their own Mock.  Nothing personal, it's not a part of the NFL that I enjoy.

Think I can get used to this idea of writing about aspects of the NFL I don't like - might make it a once a week topic.  However, next time I'll talking about something that's usually more positive...the Fans, and how they compare to fans of other sports.  As an Eagles fan, I think it's fair to say I'll be mentioning snowballs and Santa Claus at some point!



Tuesday 27 March 2012

Best of Enemies & An Eagles Update

They are the games that fans most look forward to.  The ones that get the blood pumping.  The ones that you are desperate to win more than any other.

I'm talking about the games against your team's rivals. Maybe it's the local rivals from down the road, maybe it's a team in your Division an/or maybe it's a team you have an historical rivalry with.  Whatever the background, we all love the big games against our rivals.  So, how can I make sure I'm excited for the big Divisional games facing the Eagles this season?

At Gillingham, we aren't located especially close to another team.  Charlton and Millwall are the nearest we have to local rivals, but it's not a particularly fierce or passionate rivalry.  Partly because Charlton and Millwall have other teams that play closer to them and partly because they are usually in a higher division to us, so we don't get to play them too often.
A Swindon fan shows off
his counting skills
Historically, we've been rivals with Swindon Town.  This dates back to some important league fixtures in the 70's that had a few controversial moments and some ensuing crowd trouble.  To this day, it's still extremely satisfying to beat Swindon, especially when it's 5-0 on the first day of the season!  However, compared to some of the rivalries that exist in football, it's pretty tame stuff.

I live in Birmingham and the rivalry between Aston Villa and Birmingham City is far more intense.  Supporters will openly come out with comments like "Don't care if we go down, as long as we beat the Villa".  It's all a bit puzzling really as the genesis of the rivalry is that they are geographically close.  It's hardly the basis for a big dispute.  But having said that, I am a bit jealous of the fact that these teams have a fierce local rivalry and such intense games.  It's a similar story in cities such as Sheffield, Bristol and Manchester.

In the NFL, things a bit different.  The majority of rivalries are born from the way the league is structured.  You play the 3 other teams from your division twice each - which constitutes over a third of each teams fixture list.  Obviously this means that a lot of Divisional match ups have a lot riding on them.  Titles are decided, play off spots are secured and bragging rights are won.  This leads to some pretty intense rivalries.
It also means that defeats for these teams in other games has a positive impact on your team - so it makes sense to cheer for their opponents.

For the Philadelphia Eagles, this means NFC East rivalries with the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys.  I've previously discussed incidents with the Giants, including both Miracels in the Meadowlands, and there have been equally as memorable moments against the Cowboys - The Bounty Bowls are the most famous.

So, in order to support the Eagles do I need to cultivate a hatred of their NFC East rivals?
Cowboys fans show off their
spelling skills

As it goes, the Cowboys are one of the teams that I've always carried a bit of a dislike for.  I've written before about how you develop fairly intangible dislikes of certain teams. Well, Dallas certainly fall into that category.  I can't place where this emanates from - maybe it's the annoying Owner Jerry Jones, maybe it's the "celeb" QB Tony Romo or maybe it's just down to the fact that there are one of the most popular teams in the NFL and have a fair few glory hunters in their midst.  Whatever the answer, I'm sure I will find it very easy to develop my hatred of all things Cowboy.

It's a similar story with the Giants, I can't put my finger on why I dislike them but I clearly do.  I was routing for the Pats during the SuperBowl..and the 49ers in the Championship game.  There's just something a bit clinical and dull about them - maybe it's the dullard QB Eli Manning or the angry uncle Tom Coughlin. The Giants aren't a team that endear themselves to me, so I can no problem in building up a healthy hatred of them.

It will be a bit tougher with the Redskins. I can't say I've got any real dislike of Washington, they are one of the NFL teams that I am pretty apathetic about.  I've got no real negative feelings towards any of their players, Mike Shanahan doesn't offend me.  Perhaps that will change, maybe Robert Griffin will be really annoying in the NFL, or Shanahan will come out with some ludicrous comments in press conferences.

The overall feeling I have is that whilst I'm not an NFL fan so that I can hate teams, it is an interesting part of being a fan and makes some victories (and defeats) more of an emotional experience.

==========================================================


I'm now 2 weeks into my Eagle supporting life and I'm growing ever more happy with my decision.  I decided to try posting my blog on a US based Eagles site. Whilst there were a few comments regarded my terminology (It's a match not a game apparently!) the feedback was excellent.


I'm also reading up quite a bit on the teams prospects for the upcoming Draft and next season.  It's all leaving me in a positive frame of mind regarding the Eagles future.


As for the blog, I'm going to carry on in a similar vain and will be writing an article on the Draft build up later in the week.


I'm also keen to make the blog more like it was "pre Eagles".  Some kind of quest or journey I can undertake. I want to keep it within the realms of the NFL rather than looking for another sport or team to follow (not sure my girlfriend would be able to cope with that).


There are a number of other great NFL blogs and websites up there so I'm keen to try and make my different to others.  Any ideas gratefully accepted?

Thursday 22 March 2012

Free to Roam

One of the difficulties in writing a blog such as this, is striking the balance between talking about the NFL and making it readable for non NFL fans.  Sometimes I succeed, sometimes I don't.  This time I'm not going to try - instead I'm going to split this in 2, by firstly talking about how Free Agency works and then going into more detail about some of the FA activity over the past few days...


Imagine if all 20 teams in the Premier League had exactly the same budget with which to pay players. Regardless of who owns them, Man City would have to have the same wage bill as Wigan.  They could distribute that amount however they wish, but the bottom line is that every team would be paying their squad exactly the same.  Immediately, you've got a fairer league and greater control over costs.

Of course, this will never happen in football, as the Premier League isn't franchised, so the richer clubs would never agree to a Cap.  However, this is how things work in the NFL, all 32 teams are restricted by an annual Salary Cap of $120.6m and have to work within the confines of it.  NFL revenue is shared between franchises so any money from TV deals, merchandise etc is split between all 32 franchises.  Even gate receipts are split 60-40 between the 2 teams.  The overall purpose is parity.  No oil barons buying the league, no teams monopolizing the SuperBowl and plenty of open divisions that are very difficult to predict.  Teams can still make money via other revenue streams (eg using the ground for other events) but the money that they can invest in the playing squad is equal.

Between early March and the April Draft teams can trade for players who are out of contract (Free Agents) to try and improve their squad.  It's a very tricky balancing act for teams as they have to strike the right balance between paying the elite players massive wages and having enough depth to have a strong squad.  Players that are under contract can move teams, but only if their existing club is happy for them to go and/or the buying clubs gives them Draft picks for future years.

Naturally, the way a team uses Free Agency is dictated by how much Cap space they have  - ie how many of their own players become Free Agents -  and also how the team's management want to move forward. There are a few different approaches to Free Agency...

Sadly, this wasn't a Dream
Building a Dream Team - A phrase that sends shudders through Eagles fans.  During 2011 Free Agency, they used their Cap space to sign some big name Free Agents and bolstered this by making some other big off season trades.  All of which led to new back up QB Vince Young hailing them as a "Dream Team"...sadly for Vince and co, it's not quite that simple.  New players have to fit into the team's style and schemes, bring their previous form with them and cope wit the pressure of a big move.

The Marquee Signing - Putting your eggs into a big basket by adding an elite player to your team.  The Bronco's signing of Peyton Manning has been the story of this year's Free Agency (well until yesterday it was!).  One of the all time great QBs becoming available led to a frenzy of activity and Manning racking up a bucket load of Air Miles, as team's tried to convince him to come to them.  Denver were the eventual winners and their odds for next season were halved by bookmakers.  But, it's a big risk - Manning is 36, missed last season and is coming into a team that played in as "unManning" a style as possible last season.

Stick with what you know - The New York Giants FA activity in 2011 was pretty low key.  They signed some "road" Free Agents (Players with no team the previous season) and improved the contracts of some existing players.  No big name new players, no radical change of strategy - just some minor changes.  The result - a SuperBowl victory.

Wait for the Draft - Some teams don't make many FA moves, preferring instead to wait for the Draft where they can build a young team for the future.  This was the Bengals 2011 plan and their Draft signings saw them reach the play offs and they look set for a bright future.  I'll be discussing the Draft in more detail in a couple of weeks time.  It's highly unusual for a team like the Bengals to make a big money FA signing.

Go Deep - Sometimes it's not the marquee signings that make the difference, sometimes teams can go deeper into the FA pool and unearth some hidden gems that can become huge upgrades.  Nobody paid much attention to the 49ers signing players such as Carlos Rogers and David Akers last year, but they proved to be massive upgrades and helped the team to a successful season that was a fumble away from a SuperBowl appearance.


2012 Free Agency

Clearly, there are many different ways to use Free Agency, and whatever approach a team takes there is a risk involved.  The Giants and 49ers low key approaches last year worked for them, but who knows which team will be the big winners of the 2012 Free Agency.  Let's have a look at some of the moves that have happened so far.  These aren't necessarily the biggest moves but just ones that have caught my eye...

Mike Tolbert to Carolina - Hmm, a bit like a tramp buying a 4th harmonica - it's not the most pressing concern.  Tolbert is a good multi purpose back, but the Panthers have Williams, Stewart and a decent 3rd string RB in Goodson.  A quick look at last year's Points Conceded column and it's pretty clear that the Panthers have more pressing issues to address.

Campbell holding a ball.
Not as much fun as holding
a clipbaord!
Jason Campbell to Chicago - If you were to rank all the QBs in the NFL, Campbell would probably be around 20th-25th. So, it seems very negative of him to go to a team that have an established QB in Jay Cutler.  Campbell clearly prefers holding a clipboard on Sunday afternoons.  A move to a team like the Jets or the Jags would have seen him have a great chance of starting matches.  A very disappointing move for a talented player.

Jackson, Nicks and Wright to Tampa Bay - Not quite in the Dream Team league of FA splashes but the Bucs have been the big spenders so far.  They've signed 3 excellent players, who are all big upgrades from the 2011 season....in theory.  As the Eagles discovered, it's not always that simple, but on the surface, I like what the Bucs are doing.  Josh Freeman will be delighted with the moves, whilst Raheem Morris is in a dark room, shaking his head and muttering "why not last year?".

The Dolphins  - To borrow a phrase from the Walking Dead, Miami appears to be overrun with walkers!  Nobody wants to go near the place; Manning, Smith, Flynn, my auntie Jean - they've all said no to the chance of becoming the Dolphin's new QB.  At least they've managed to land the serviceable David Garrard, to at least give Matt Moore someone to talk to on the sidelines.  But the Dolphins have been the big losers of FA and now need to either take a big Draft gamble on a QB or hope Moore/Garrard is the answer.  And as for trading away Brandon Marshall?! Let's just say, I'm happy that I didn't end up as a Miami fan.

Tebow to the Jets - Just joking, I'm sure you don't want to read anymore about this.

The Eagles - Finally, it'd be remiss of me not to talk about my new team.  In contrast to last year's headline grabbing antics, the Eagles have taken a much more conservative approach this year.  They've tied up 3 of their existing stars to longer contracts.  Stars with youth on their side, so the Eagles are building long term, which can only be a good thing.

And then, out of the blue, they make a trade for linebacker Demeco Ryans of the Texans for a couple of low round Draft picks - a very good deal for the Eagles, as whilst Ryans has had injury problems of late, he appears to be over them and has a superb pedigree.  He is the Texans all time leading tackler, a Team Captain, a former Defensive Rookie of the Year and an All Pro player.  Linebacker was a weak area for the Eagles in 2011 and this is undoubtedly a big upgrade.  The subsequent disappointment and surprise coming from Houston only served to enforce the idea that the Eagles had made a great move.


Wow - I'm supporting a sports team I feel optimistic about!  That's a unique feeling for me.  I'll be carrying this optimism into next week, when I look at rivalries in sport, the NFL and, in particular, the teams that the Eagles love to beat.

Tuesday 20 March 2012

The Past is a Foreign Land

Aside from wanting to write the first NFL blog to quote LP Hartley, the purpose of my first blog post as an Eagles fan is to look back at the history of the NFL.

Don't worry, this isn't going to be a load of "fascinating" facts about when teams were founded and who had the most rushing yards in 1954.  Quite frankly, I find that kind of thing rather dull.  But what I do find interesting are the individual moments in sporting history that fans and players can talk about.  All sports have them, moments that everybody knows about, regardless of whether they were at the event or even alive when they happened.  Events like the Hand of God, the Duel in the Sun and Shane Warne's Ball of the Century.
Of course, television has been the key factor in shaping those memories.  Thanks to television, people under the age of 50, can have detailed conversations about whether Geoff Hurst's shot crossed the line in the 1966 World Cup Final.

When it comes to the NFL, special moments and matches are remembered fondly by fans thanks to - among other things - programmes on the NFL Network.  Most NFL followers are aware of events such as the Immaculate Reception and  and can talk extensively about the Tuck Rule and Tyree's Helmet Catch.  It is these memorable moments that I find interesting, and the stories that surround them.

Of course, it is all about the context of the moment.  Would The Hand of God be as well remembered if England had beaten Argentina?  Would Warne's magical delivery to Gatting be as revered if England had won the Ashes in 1993?  And would Tyree's Catch be part of NFL folklore if Manning had been picked off on the next play?

As a Philadelphia Eagles fan, one of the first things I wanted to do was to find out about some of the memorable moments in their history.  As it turns out, 2 of them are known by virtually the same name!

The Miracle at the Meadowlands refers to a bizarre end to a game against the Giants in 1978 - the Giants were ahead and running down the clock but for some reason they decided to try a running play instead of just taking a QB kneel...a fumble and a touchdown later and you've got one of the most absurd finishes ever to an NFL game. What makes this an even more remarkable story is that 32 years later the Eagles completed another improbable win against the Giants - this time at their New Meadowlands home.  In this game, the Eagles found themselves 21 points behind with just 8 minutes left, but a flurry of last touchdowns drew them level and then on the final play of the game Desean Jackson returned a punt all the way into the Giants end zone.
What makes these moments special is not just the unlikelihood of the Eagles winning, it's the method of victory, the uniqueness of the occurrences and the legacy of the incidents.  For example, since the Miracle in the Meadowlands, teams have adopted a "Victory Formation" when protecting a lead in the final seconds of a game.  Thus ensuring that the team do not lose possession whilst winding down the clock.

These incidents, as well as events such as McNabb's 4th and 26 conversion and the Body Bag game are the aspects of the Eagles history that I find fun to find out about.  It's all part of my journey of Eagles discovery, and next week I'll be looking at another important aspect of supporting a team - the rivalries!

Talking of Philadelphia, I'm thoroughly pleased that I've ended up as an Eagles fan.  I've been welcomed into the British Eagles family (Thanks Matt and James), introduced myself to members the Eagles US fan base and I'm getting to grips with learning about the Eagles team and expectations for this season.
To tie in with this, I'm going to write my next blog piece on the Free Agency period in the NFL.  Looking at the pros and cons of the system, how teams use the period and a bit about how the Eagles have approached Free Agency in recent times.

Thursday 15 March 2012

Eagles v Lions - The Grand Final

Intro:  If you'd have asked me at the start of my search who I thought would make the final, it's fair to say that these 2 wouldn't have been my answer. But such are the vagaries of this process.  In fact, I'm happy with both of my finalists - after all they have come through some pretty tricky tests, not least surviving the "worst city to visit" round! A topic that still causes arguments in my household.

This time last Thursday I was in Madrid, sitting (well standing) with a few thousand Besiktas fans watching them lose 3-1 to Athletico - what a difference a week makes!  Anyway, it's all set for an exciting finale. The ingredients are:

* A 2nd hand Xbox
* A 2nd hand copy of Madden 07
* My bedroom
* Occasional flicks to Channel 5 to see how the Bilbao -Man U game is going on.
* And most importantly, a cpu v cpu game between the Eagles and Lions to decide who gains my loyal support for the rest of my NFL watching life.
* If anybody happens to be reading this during the match and wants to make a comment, can you do it below rather than on a forum - doubt I'll check any forums until I post the outcome later.

Just had a lovely bit of salmon for dinner, so in high spirits before kick off.  The Eagles have home advantage for what it's worth (nothing!), and I'm making them favorites given the strength of the rosters in 07, but in a one off match up anything can happen. Roy Williams may even make a couple of catches.
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PreMatch:  Andy Reid must be the easiest person ever for a game designer to replicate.  Our starting QBs are McNabb and John Kitna - which perfectly illustrates the rapid changing nature of the NFL,  as well as the rapidly expanding waist lines of the players in question.  Detroit will kick off.

0-0 Eagles have first possession, starting at their 27.  It's snowing! I find the comms annoying but it's the only way I can tell who's who. Westbrook is the Eagles RB and makes a couple of decent gains before McNabb turns into 2011 MacNabb and throws 3 dire passes. Punt goes long so the Lions start at the 20.

0-0  The Lions start with a great throw by Kitna that Brown (who he?) catches for a gain of 26.  Another decent gain and the Lions are at halfway.  Hmm, the Lions O line is woeful and Kitna gets dumped for a big sack.  Lions punt only goes 15 yards!

0-0  Now the Eagles  waste their possession and are forced into a quick punt.  McNabb is 0-5 so far!  The punt is returned for about 10 so Lions start from the 35.

0-0  Kitna throws a shocker to Williams but 3 Eagles contrive to drop an easy int.  And again, awful pass to nobody but the Eagles make a hash of the catch.  This is a terrible game!  More O Line problems and Kitna is sacked by Kearse.  Punt number 4!  I'm going to see how the football is going...on good United are still losing.

0-0  New camera angle! Side on now - the highlight of the match so far.  Westbrook makes a couple of 2 yard gains before McNabb decides to run around for a bit until he gets tackled. Punt time!
jrt5555 has found evidence of my Andy Reid video game comment http://angrybirdsgoldeneggs.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Angry-Birds-Mustached-Pigs.jpg .


0-0 Something happens!  Schlesinger fumbles after a 7 yard run, but the Lions recover and earn a 1st down. Not sure why a member of the Pussycat Dolls is playing.  An 11 yard run by Jones takes us to the end of the first Quarter and time for a football update...5-2 Bilbao! Up yours United!


2nd Quarter


0-0 Lions on halfway.  "P" reckons that Reid looks like a Swedish politician called HÃ¥kan Juholt.  I'm saying Bob Carolgees!  Juholt that is, not Reid




   

   





Back in the snow, and the Lions are stuck in midfield again.  More long garbage from Kitna and the Lions have to punt.  Fernando Torres appears to be punting for Detroit as another effort goes way off target and out of bounds for a short gain.  Lions are offering more coming forward but can't pin the Eagles back.

0-0  McNabb completes a pass!!!!  Takes the Eagles to the Det43, then reverts to type with a shocking attempt at a deep ball.  Westbrook gians 4 and it's 3-6.
Interception! Mcnabb finally pays for his ineptitude by throwing an easy pick to Kennedy.  Lions to start at the 30.

0-0  The Lions line is disintegrating but Kitna throws a great pass to Williams for a first down.  The Lions are the better team but can't get past midfield.
They can now, great catch from Rogers for a 34yd gain and up to the Eagles 31 as it's time for the 2 minute warning/Europa League check.  Sodding Rooney!

"anonymous" - only one int so far.  Just feels like more!

0-0 Great chance for the Lions to put points on the board before HT.  Kitna goes for 7 and make that 2 interceptions.  Bryan Dawkins picks it off at the 9 before Williams drills him.

0-0 For the love of Jesus H Christ! Eagles decide to run the clock down with a couple of runs and the Lions don't call any timeouts.  At this rate, there might be a replay!  The Eagles limp for a 1st down at the 18 and then just wind down to half time.

Half Time 0-0 - That was a shocking half.  I'd been looking forward to this and it's been a damper squib than a saturated squib.  Off to tell my girlfriend how rubbish it's been.  Second half in ten minutes.

0-0  Detroit start at the 19 but Kitna is picked off from the first play!  Short pass down the middle is easily picked off by Lewis.

0-3  More McNabb dross, but at least the Eagles get some points on the board thanks to a kick from Akers.  Akers doesn't do his trademark FG celebration.  Possibly because this isn't real.  I did try and get Andy Reid and Jim Schwarz to play an off season game for my services but they weren't up for it.

0-3  Oh dear, the Lions turn the ball over again on their first play.  This time Jones fumbles and Dawkins recovers.  Dawkins appears to be playing a different game to everybody else.

0-6  McNabb rating is 4.9! He's 2 from 12 with a pick. Westbrook is at least doing his bit with a 4.9 average but it's not enough for a first down.  Akers kicks a 37 yarder and the Eagles have a small cushion.

0-6 At least they didn't turn it over! However it is a quick 3 and out from the Lions.  Eagles will start from the 35 as Harris finally keeps a punt on the island.

0-13  This is unraveling for the Lions, a big heave from McNabb draws a flag for pass interference.  No idea you'd bother interfering with a McNabb pass!  Eagles are down to the 18 ...Touchdown Eagles!!!
Finally McNabb finds his range and finds the completely unmarked Pinkston.  Akers does the PAT and I start wondering how I'd look in dark green.

End of the Third Quarter - The Lions need 2 scores and given that they've barely reached the Eagles half it looks unlikely.  However the Eagles were even worse before HT so anything could happen. It may help if the Lions can keep the ball for more than 10 seconds!

0-13  Kearse is challenging Dawkins for MVP here, another huge hit on Jones results in a loss, before he plants Kitna for another sack.  Harris comes in for about the 50th time today and takes us to halfway.

0-13 12 yard run from Westbrook and it's looking bad for Detroit. Westbrook picks up another 1st down  and the Eagles are back to the 20.  jrt5555 is putting the champagne on ice, I'm about to open a Spitfire.
Westbrook dives for another 1st and is down to the 10.

2 Minute Warning.  Detroit have actually defended well apart from the TD drive but their offence has been dire.

0-20  Touchdown! What a catch from Reggie Brown! Completely ignoring the fact that I've never heard of him he catches a hopeful pass from McNabb and somehow manages to get his feet down in bounds despite being double teamed by the Lions.  Akers kicks the PAT and the Lions need Tebow Times 2.

0-20  Surely in real life, Kitna would have benched, released and banned from Detroit by now.  Actually he'd be happy about the last bit!  Finally, Roy Williams does what he does best and drops an easy catch with nobody near him.  To be fair to Kitna, he's not been helped by either his receivers or his joke of an O Line.
4th and 15..but Kitna is sacked by Howard and that is surely that. Just 1 minute 37 to go and the Eagles and Westbrook has been solid with the ball.  Hats off to Craigus89 who predicted an easy Eagles win.
0-20  Westbrook makes a couple of nice gains to take it to the 2.  Dawkins wins the MVP award (sponsored by Snickers..."Snickers satisfies") for his interception, fumble recovery and not allowing a catch. Into the final minute now and the fat man is singing.

0-23  Detroit call a time out with 20 seconds remaining after a decent goalline stand.  Akers kicks a short FG and the Lions get the ball for the last rites.

0-23  Kitna gets sacked for the 8th time, so next play he decides to throw a quick hail mary....it goes out of bounds.  Hail Mary 2 is equally as poor and that will be that!

Detroit Lions 0  Philadelphia Eagles 23


Which means I am now officially an Eagles fan!  Andy Reid trudges off the field looking like he's lost his dinner money whilst McNabb jumps around with more athleticism then he manged to show during the game!
Not the classic I hoped for but the Eagles were worthy winners thanks to great defensive displays from Kearse and Dawkins plus some solid running by Westbrook and a brilliant catch by someone called Reggie Brown!  The Lions were completely inept, largely thanks to a flimsy O line, an awful QB and not much of a running game.

Back in the real world, I'm happy with the outcome.  It's been a long journey, but one I've greatly enjoyed and it's given me a real thirst for blogging about the NFL.  I'm going to have a few days off from writing before recommencing next week.  I've decided to split my blogs between general pieces about aspects of supporting NFL teams with timely pieces on what's going on in the league - for example next week I may write about the recent history of the league and something about Free Agency. It wont be Eagles heavy so you can still read it even if they aren't you team.  But I will be mentioning the Eagles pretty regularly.

I've already had my first invite to an Eagles Fan Club  (Britich Eagles), thanks James, Ill check it out in the morning.
Meanwhile, I'm all NFLed out for one evening so time for a beer!

Tuesday 13 March 2012

Bye Bye Bye

(Before my final elimination, I wanted to have a "non elimination" blog just to have an overview of what's happened, a preview of the final and a look at where I'll be taking the blog after the Final)

In 2 days time I will become a supporting of either the Detroit Lions or the Philadelphia Eagles.  For some weeks now, I've known how I was going to decide the Final elimination, so I can now reveal that my Team For Life will be decided by.....

Detroit Lions v Philadelphia Eagles....in a computer v computer game of Madden....07.....on an X Box.

I'm no computer game fan, both the Xbox and game are secondhand.  The game cost me a whopping £0.01 (plus p&p) from Amazon, so you can see I've invested a lot of money into ensuring I make the right decision!  Why have I chosen this method for the Final?  I'll give you 3 good reasons:

1.  It's fair.  OK, some Madden fans may know that one team is superior to the other in this version of the game but I have no idea.  Besides, even if one teams stats do outweigh their opponents then it doesn't guarantee them victory.  Of course, a lot of the "players" on show will be at different teams now or retired, but I think that makes it more fun in a way. Who wants Stafford v Vick when you can have McNabb v Kitna!

2.  I like the style of elimination.  Throughout my process there have been 3 broad ways I've got rid of teams - stats based, opinion based and randomly.  My quarter final was stats based, my semi final was an opinion, so it makes sense for the Final to be a random head to head encounter.

3.  I'm a big fan of the "in play" commentary style that a lot of news websites adopt.  Be it "over by over", "play by play" or "minute by minute", these articles help me starve off boredom at work and often offer a different perspective of the game.  This is my chance to have a go at this, and I'll be providing a running text commentary on the "match".  I may even publish a few updates during the match!

The game will consist of 5 minute quarters and I will have no influence on it at all. It will start at approximately 7pm on Thursday evening.  I've just tossed a coin and can confirm that the Eagles will have home advantage.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've been really pleased with the response to the blog.  When I started at the turn of the year, I had no idea how many people would take the time to read it. I wasn't even sure whether I'd reach the end of the process as a) I doubted I'd be able to come up with enough methods and b) if nobody was reading then I may have got disillusioned.   I've just hit 4000 hits so I must be doing something right I guess!

So a big thank you to everyone who's commented on the blog, tweeted it and especially to secondcityfanatics.com and 1amsports.com who have published additional articles by me.

Just to clear up a few issues....

* Yes, I know it's a silly, convoluted and illogical process.  I know some of the methods are unfair, but that's part of the game.  I'm trying to invest a lot of time and effort into this so when I do find my team in 2 days time, I will invest the same effort into supporting them.

* The whole ethos of this blog has been that there loads of ways to find a team to support and they are all equally valid.  This is just my approach.

* If I had decided to just pick a team to support then I would have gone for the Rams, based on the recent trade deal and the fact they are playing in London for the next 3 seasons.  But, that's another method of picking a team!

* Hopefully, this hasn't just been an NFL heavy blog and I've tried to not be overly technical about the sport.  It's meant to be more of a look at why we support teams and various aspects of sport.  As such, I'm going to carry on in a similar vein after the Final.  I'll be looking at various aspects of supporting a team - history, venues, players, fans etc, but in a broad way rather than just being Eagles/Lions specific.  I'll also be looking at timely moments in the off season such as Free Agency, the Draft, Training Camp etc.  All building up to Week One when I can finally watch my team in action!

* Lastly, as we've eliminated 30 teams, it stands to reason that I've learnt 30 things during my search...

1. I really don't like the Steelers

2. Nobody rates the Rams
3. The Colts had a terrible 2011
4. At least they didn't have Blaine Gabbert
5. Kansas isn't the place to go for touchdowns
6. The Bucs are rubbish at Wembley
7. The Patriots had it too easy at Wembley
8. New Orleans were great at Wembley, but not enough to win me over
9.  The Chargers were almost as great at Wembley, but didn't win me over either
10. Beating the Bucs, isn't enough to win me over.  Sorry Bears
11. Oakland commit far too many fouls.
12. Don't turn on the TV if you want to watch the Cardinals
13. The Dolphins need continuity
14. Purple isn't a great look in Baltimore
15. The Browns logo is stupid
16. I'm not a glory hunter
17. Dallas are terrible tossers
18. Don't bet your house on Graham Gano making a field goal
19. Sourdough Sam is a disgrace of a mascot
20. Moving to Seattle hasn't gone well for Zach Miller
21. Don't put Broncos in your Fantasy team
22. There's something about Green Bay I don't like.
23. The Bengals need a better back up QB
24. It's a bloody long way to Tennessee
25. My girlfriend doesn't fancy a trip to Carolina
26. NFl360 reckons I should be a Falcon
27. The Bills are rubbish at home (and away actually!)
28.  Houston can't get it down on 4th down
29. The Vikings are a weak team
30. Kevin Cadle dislikes the Jets!


All of which means that this Thursdays it's a showdown between the Eagle and the Lions....






                        or

Sunday 11 March 2012

Expert Analysis

Sports experts and TV talent shows constantly remind us that the worst time to be eliminated is in a semi final.  If you reach the final and lose then at least you've had your day in the limelight, at least you've made the big one, at least you've had the glory of winning a semi.  Semi finalists are usually forgotten, and when they are remembered, it is for all the wrong reasons -  missing a penalty, dropping a catch, being a British tennis player.  This year we've seen Billy Cundiff and Kyle Williams join the roll of semi-shame.  People don't talk about the fantastic performances form the 49ers and Ravens, they talk about the missed field goal and the fumble.
This all make my penultimate elimination seem like the hardest, so hard that I'm not going to make it...

I'm no NFL expert - you've probably worked that out by now - sure, I know a fair bit and my knowledge is growing at a good rate, but there are plenty of people out there who can wipe the floor with me.  Some of them even get employed to share their views on the sport.  That's the calibre of person I want making this all important decision - somebody who really knows what they are talking about.  Unfortunately, I don't know anybody who falls into that illustrious bracket.  I've got a mate who's been in a few adverts and I saw Alan Pardew at Gatwick Airport last week, but that doesn't make me a friend to the stars.  Luckily, there's an easy way to contact the experts these days - you can tweet them!

Twitter gets a lot of bad press due to celebrities saying the wrong things and, in the wrong hands, a forum to talk openly to the world is a very bad thing.  But in terms of finding out what's going on in the world it's invaluable.  It also allows us to get the views of people who can give us interesting and intelligent opinions.  Which makes twitter perfect for me to get an NFL expert to carry out my semi final elimination.  All I needed to do was tweet an NFL expert and hope they were kind enough to reply.

One of the drawbacks of twitter is that 140 characters is pretty limiting.  As such, I spent a fair amount of time getting  the wording right so I didn't appear to be a nutter, a loser or a stalker (or a combination of the 3), in the end I settled for a succinct:

                 "Be great if you could just give me a short ans: Who would you least like to support - Jets,        Eagles or Lions?"

Add the blog and the recipients twitter address and you've got exactly 140 characters.  Who do I send the question to? Well, seeing as I spend my Sunday evening watching the NFL on British TV, why not ask the people who appear on my screens every week?  So, I sent my tweets to Neil Reynolds, Mike Carlson and Kevin Cadle.  The purpose being that I'd eliminate the team selected by the first person to reply.  But would any of them bother answering my very random and ever so slightly trite question?  Happily, the answer was yes, in fact Kevin Cadle replied very quickly

No man is an island?
Which means I can reveal that the team to miss out on a place in my personal Superbowl are the New York Jets.  "Jets, Same Division as the Bills" were Mr Cadle's exact words.  Which given his very open support of Buffalo comes as no surprise.  To confirm that I was making the right decision, Mike Carlson also replied with "Jets...obviously".  Nothing yet from My Reynolds, so either it's proving a tough decision or he's got better things to do on a Sunday afternoon. I'm thinking it's more column B than column A!

The Jets are the 30th team to depart my search. They are a team I'm fairly ambivalent about, I like Rex Ryan's personality, I think Darelle Revis is the best defensive player in the league but I'm not great fan of Mark Sanchez or Santino Holmes.  The whole Jets sideshow can get a bit grating when it seems to overshadow what's going on between the white lines, having said that it can provide good entertainment when the on field action is distinctly average.

If you've been keeping track, you'll know that my final 2 teams are the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles.  One of those teams will earn my support for life, but in true NFL style, I'll be having a "bye" before the final!  I'll be recapping my entire process so far, talking about how the blog will continue and revealing the way in which the final will be decided.
Hopefully, I should have that up on Tuesday with the "Superbowl" to follow on Thursday night.




Thursday 8 March 2012

Quarter Final Time

Four teams to go. Will I become a fan of the Eagles, the Jets, the Vikings or maybe the Lions. Only 3 eliminations left, starting with my final look at the murky world of NFL statistics.

Throughout my search for a team, I've used a number of statistical comparisons to eliminate teams.  Quarterback ratings, kick success rates, tight end comparisons, 4th down records etc.  As I'm approaching the end of the process, it's time to look back at all the statistics and get rid of a team based on their overall stats in the categories I've used.

To keep things relatively simple, I will rank my 4 remaining teams for each category and give them 4,3,2 or 1 point(s) accordingly, the team with the worst overall score will be eliminated.  Makes sense?  Doesn't matter, it will do as we go on.

Draft Order
My first statistical elimination was based on the 2012 Draft order.  The Colts bit the dust here due to their 2-14 record, but just one game ahead of them were the Vikings, so they scoop just the one point in this category.  One of the great aspects of the NFL is that the worst teams have a chance to improve by having the first pick of new talent in the Draft.  Imagine if Lionel Messi decided he wanted to come to England, instead of Man City dipping into their vast pockets, little old Wigan would get first dips on the Argentine.  Of course the Premier League isn't a franchise so that'll never happen, but in the NFL the system helps maintain parity in the League.

Vikings 1pt  Eagles 2pts  Jets 3pts  Lions 4pts




Quarterback Ratings
Poor Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars bit the dust in this round.  The Quarterback rating is a complicated system but if you look at the ratings for 2011 it does give a good reflection of the order of supremacy in the position.  Few would argue that Messrs Rodgers, Brees and Brady were the top 3 QBs during the regular season, and, sadly for Jacksonville, Mr Gabbert had a shocker of a Rookie season.
When it comes to my 4 teams there are 4 very different QB season to assess.  Firstly, there is the ever improving and almost elite Matthew Stafford of the Lions - Stafford has shown remarkably progression during his 3 years in the league and is the prime reason for Detroit's resurgence.  Then we have Michael Vick of the Eagles, a superstar in 2010, he didn't quite maintain that level in 2011, but he is still an excellent starting QB.  Mark Sanchez continues to polarize fans in New York - one week he's a superstar, the next he's Rex Grossman.  Patience is wearing thin and more and more Jets fans are doubting whether Sanchez can take the Jets to the Superbowl.  Finally, there is young Christian Ponder in Minnesota.  Ponder took over at the Vikings halfway through 2011 and performed moderately, he shows flashes of potential and flashes of inexperience.  It's fair to say that the jury is out on whether Ponder is the long term answer.
all of which means our points for this round are...

Vikings 1pt  Jets 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Lions 4pts




Penalties
It was goodbye to the Raiders when I looked penalties in the NFL.  Penalties are probably my number one bugbear in American Football, they delay the game, stop me going to bed and are often basic errors.  Simply put, the less penalties a team concedes the better.  Not surprisingly it is the Lions who fare badly in this round.  Coach Jim Schwarz has developed a reputation for sometimes over aggressive play, led by the helmet grabbing, arm stamping antics of Ndamukong Suh. So, it's just 1pt for Detroit this time...

Lions 1pt   Jets 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Vikings 4pts




TV Matches
Next up was a look at how many live televised games each team had in 2011.  The Cardinals were the only side to score 0 here and were eliminated accordingly. Top of the shop were the Superbowl winning New York Giants, who had 11 of their 16 regular season games on TV - which I guess shows the people who pick the live games know what they are doing. This category gives us our first tie as the Vikings and Lions both had 5 live games...

Vikings & Lions 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Jets 4pts




Coaching Changes
This saw me get rid of the team who have had the most coaching changes since the last expansion in 2001. Andy Reid scores top marks for the Eagles here, 13 years in the job and still going strong(ish).  Reid is one of only 2 coaches to have been in the job for over ten years.  At the other end of the spectrum are the Raiders who have had 7 coaches in 10 years.  The Lions again score just the 1 point as they have had 5 coaches in that time, whilst the Jets and Vikings score 3 each.


Lions 1pt  Vikings & Jets 3pts  Eagles 4pts




Kickers
The odd men out of the NFL, but still a vital position. I wanted my team to have a kicker I could trust.  A kicker who could land the last minute winner or the tricky 50 yarder into the wind.  I didn't want Graham Gano of the Washington Redskins! Not surprisingly, Nick Folk of the Jets is bottom of my 4 teams.  I never trust Folk with a field goal - he doesn't have a confident air about him and looks a bag of nerves when lining up his kicks. My top kicker is Alex Henery of the Eagles, a rookie with a bright future in Philadelphia.

Jets 1pt  Vikings 2pts  Lions 3pts  Eagles 4pts


Tight Ends
The "in"position in the NFL, Tight Ends are game changers and my teams needs a strong one.  This meant the end for Seattle and their run first offence.  They actually have a very good tight end in Zach Miller, but Pete Carroll's game plan meant Miller had little impact for the Seahawks.  It was similar for Vince Shiancoe of the Vikings, a great player but a poor year in Minnesota meant he struggled to put points on the board.


Vikings 1pt  Lions 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Jets 4pts




Fantasy Points
I'm pretty sure I'll be playing Fantasy Football in 2012 so it'd be great to have a couple of my team's players in my Fantasy squad.  The Denver Broncos lost out here, and it's looking increasingly likely the Vikings are about to go the same way, as they have another bad round.  Detroit came out on top, largely thanks to having 2 Fantasy monsters in Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson

Vikings 1pt  Jets 2pts  Eagles 3pts  Lions 4pts




Back Up Quarterbacks
My final statistical elimination was based on back up Quarterbacks and the need for a team to have a strong one.  Bottom of my 4 man pile are the Eagles and the much maligned Vince Young.  Young has actually been replaced in Philadelphia by Trent Edwards.  Edwards is a safer bet, but doesn't possess the flair of Young or the big play capability.  Top marks go to Shaun Hill - who is a useful weapon for the Lions,not least because of Matt Stafford's worrying penchant for picking up injuries.

Eagles 1pt  Jets 2pts  Vikings 3pts  Lions 4pts


All of which gives us overall scores of :

Vikings 18pts
Jets 23pts
Lions 25pts
Eagles 26pts


For the first time in about 7 rounds, I'm not surprised at the outcome.  The Vikings were always likely to pay for their awful 2011 season at some point, and that time has arrived.  It's remarkable that team with Minnesota's record lasted this far, although I'm sure they will be improved in 2012.  Any team with Adrian Peterson at running back isn't going to struggle for too long.

And then there were three!  Just 2 eliminations remain and next time it's going to be a celebrity special to decide which 2 teams will make it to my Grand Final...

Monday 5 March 2012

4 and Out

What makes a great coach stand out from a good one?  Sure, they can all make easy decisions  - putting the star player on the field, taking off an injured player etc. But what makes a great coach is the ability to make things happen - the ability to turn a 50:50 scenario into a positive outcome, to win in adverse circumstances and to get the best of players.  It is also the ability to take gambles and make them pay off.  A coach who can take a risk and reap the benefits is a precious commodity.

The Saints grab the ball
(somewhere in that melee)
One of the key moments in the New Orleans Saints victory at SuperBowl XLIV was Thomas Morstead starting the second half with an onside kick.  It was seen as a massive gamble by Coach Sean Peyton - but it wasn't just a case of Peyton throwing caution to the wind and hoping for the best.  The Saints had practiced the "Ambush" play cxtensively in the build up to the game, and when Peyton called it during the half time break, Morstead and the Special Teams unit knew what they had to do.  They even told the referees to look out for the play and made sure the Saints staff were on the side of the field that the kick was heading towards.  All little things to help influence the outcome of the kick.  When you put all the factors together, the onside kick becomes less of a gamble and more of a clever piece of strategy.  Sure enough, the Saints recovered the kick and it was seen as being a big turning point in the match.  Yes, it was a gamble and could have failed, but by planning fully for the gamble, Peyton gave his team the best possible chance of pulling it off.

At the other end of the "coaching gamble" spectrum is poor Mike Smith at Atlanta.  Despite a very good record with the Falcons, Smith is best known for his failure to convert 4th Downs.  Most famously was, coincidentally enough, the 2011 home match with the Saints when instead of punting, he decided to gamble on converting a 4th and 1 from his own 29 yard line during Overtime.  A risky move in anyone's book, and one that failed, leading to the Saints getting the ball and winning the match.  Smith was castigated for the decision, but statistically 74% of 4th and 1 (or less) attempts are successful.  Which suggests that the error wasn't Smith's decision to attempt the 4th down conversion, but the play he called to achieve his aim and/or his players execution of it.  The play was a simple run up the middle of the field, which the Saints defence read and subsequently stopped.  A more creative call could  - and I stress could - have given the Falcons a 1st down and carried on a match winning drive.
Just to add to Smith's woes, the Falcons have failed to convert from similar situations in play off defeats in the last 2 seasons.  Again, it's not a case of Smith making the wrong decision in going for the conversion.  He is just making the wrong play calls.

As it goes, the Falcons have recently been removed from my search for a team.  Which probably saves them from more misery, as my next elimination is going to be the team with the worst 4th down conversion rate in the league in 2011.  I don't want to support a team that can't execute these vital plays or one that makes bad decisions in 4th down situations.  Generally speaking there are 3 circumstances in which a team goes for it on 4th down:

 * The trick play - The element of surprise, a fake field goal or a fake punt.  The opposition are off guard and the kicker can throw a pass or go on a run.  They are also more elaborate versions of this, but however you attempt it, preparation is key to its success.

* Short yardage - "Smith Country", getting the ball a few inches forwards.  Sounds easy but often goes wrong.  Clearly the players need to execute but it's up to the coaches to pick the right play, spot the mismatches and give the players the best chance of success.

Nicks catches the Hail Mary
(somewhere in that melee)
* Desperation - The last second Hail Mary or a hopeful heave down the middle.  Harder to be critical when this fails but there is an art to it and special players/coaches can make it work.  Witness Hakeem Nicks effort against the Packers in the play offs - New York executed the play correctly, Green Bay didn't. (NB - I know this wasn't a 4th down but it was a 4th downesque desperation play)

That's enough conjecture, let's look at the 4th Down success rates of each team in 2011...


Detroit Lions 57%
Philadelphia Eagles 46% 
Minnesota Vikings 38%
New York Jets 36%
Houston Texans 27%

Of the other 27 teams, the Titans came out on top with 10 out of 14 4th down gambles paying off (74%), whilst at number were the Denver Broncos with a pathetic 23%.  The Texans were 30th in the table with just  3 successes from 11 attempts, meaning it is they who bite the dust.

Andre Johnson recreates the first photo!
Wow! I had the Texans down as my favourites to win, not sure why, as the process is very open but I just had a gut feeling Houston would pull through. Shows what I know!  I actually think the Texans are a good tip for the SuperBowl next season.  A fit Schaub, plus Foster and Johnson is a tough match for any defence. Add to that Wade Philips revamped defence and you've got the makings of a powerful outfit in a relatively weak division.

I'm down to my final four, and there are just 3 rounds left.  Which makes the next elimination a Quarter Final of sorts and a good time to take stock and recap on my previous categories...whilst eliminating a team in the process.

The next elimination will be up on Friday this week so check back then to find out who has made my Final 3!

Friday 2 March 2012

Home Sweet Home

Experts often tell us about the importance of "Home Advantage", but what advantages does being at home give?  It's certainly true that playing in your own stadium is beneficial for most teams.  Currently, in the English Premier League 15 of the 20 teams have won more matches at home than away.  Last season, 47% of matches were won by the home team.  The figures are almost identical in the lower leagues.  It's a similar story in cricket and rugby; home advantage makes a difference.  There are a few possible explanations for this trend:

Crowd support - Thousands of people cheering for you and booing the opposition can only be a good thing.
Conditions - Weather and the playing surface.  Familiarity can be a big advantage.
Travel - Staying at home the night before a game is preferable to a long coach/plane trip.
Officials - Preferential treatment from referees/umpires.

The answer is probably a combination of each, as whilst there are stats that show that home advantage exists, there is no way of accurately quantifying the specific ways in which it exists.

A good reason why I'm not
supporting the Packers
In the NFL, a couple of the above factors would seem to be more significant than in most other sports.  The size of the USA means that teams have to travel massive distances during a season.  In the 2011 season, the San Francisco 49ers racked up a whopping 29,196 miles in order to fulfill their fixtures.  In addition, teams have to contend with wildly disparate weather conditions, ranging from the Arizona dessert to the frozen fields of Green Bay.  Clearly, being used to the conditions and not having to travel is a pretty good advantage to have.

The 12th man. Often better
than the other 11
The crowd  factor is more comparable to other sports, particularly football.  Some teams have famously loud crowds that spur on the home team, put off the away team and influence the officials decisions.  Other teams struggle to fill their stadium and have notoriously apathetic fans.  For a comparison, watch a Seattle home game and a Jacksonville home game back to back.
The overall effect is that home teams won 57.3% of matches last season, so whilst it's not an automatic winning ticket it does help.  The topic of "home field advantage" is a favourite topic for NFL analysts when play-off season comes around, and they are always keen to stress its importance to a team's Superbowl chances.

The NFL schedule (which is far too dull to bother explaining) means teams play at a variety of different locations every season, but the constant factor is that they play 8 home games per year.  As such, I don't want to support a team that doesn't perform in front of their own fans.  I want a team that respond to the crowds cheers, a team that makes the most of the familiar conditions and benefits from the lack of travel.  So, I'm going to eliminate the team with the worst home record of my survivors, and I'm going to base it on the last 3 seasons, giving us have a sample size of 24 matches:

(Figures show the number of home wins)

                                        2011                2010               2009                 Overall


Buffalo                            5                       2                      3                         10
Detroit                            5                       4                      2                         11
Houston                          5                       4                      4                         13
Minnesota                      1                       4                      8                         13
New York                       6                       5                      4                         15
Philadelphia                  3                       4                      6                         13


The dream is over! After clinging on for dear life for weeks, the Buffalo Bills finally bite the bullet.  Perhaps their long stay is down to my lack of stats based eliminations in recent rounds, but I felt such a round was due.  Again, it's not 100% fair, the NFL schedule means that everyone plays a different array of teams each year, so arguably Buffalo had the toughest schedule over the sample period.  Haven't said that, I think it's fair to say that the above table is reflective of each team's ability over the last 3 years.


"Have you got $59m for
a cup of tea"
I am a bit sad to get rid of the Bills, although I never seriously thought they'd win.  Everybody likes an underdog and I'm sure I would have enjoyed supporting the Bills, but in the real world can you honestly see them reaching the playoffs in the next few years?  Honestly?
Perhaps taking the "chosen one" mantle from the Bills, are the Detroit Lions.  Following last week's absurd stay of execution, they survived this week by one victory. What's more, after completing the process, I checked the stats based on doing the elimination over 4 seasons and guess who would have been eliminated?

Which brings us down to just 5 teams and only 4 more eliminations.  I've decided on the 4 methods I'm using, and can honestly say that it's impossible to predict any of the eliminations. I've got 2 stats based and 2 left-field methods - including the winner takes all final!

Next up, I'll be looking at the dilemma that often tells us who the bravest coaches are - "Do we go for it on 4th Down?"